Trading Tesla: Real vs Crazy

As of April, 2024, Tesla had delivered 1,313,851 vehicles to customers worldwide and, in so doing, increased its deliveries by 40% in comparison to the previous year. That is an average of one Tesla vehicle for every 10 men, women and children in China (1.425 billion) Stay with me, because the population of China is decreasing, not increasing. What is Tesla going to do with all of its excess capacity? Elementary. Lowering prices increases demand, so expect Tesla's to get cheaper as the Chinese population decreases over time (China's Population Could Shrink By Half By 2050).

Crazy talk? 

My point:  Fundamental analysis, with all of its myriad of crazy inputs, is no way to make money trading TSLA options. Deliveries, sales, new products, insider buying, selling, bulls, bears, rhinos, the population of China, it all takes a back seat to one technical analysis tool:  

TSLA Intermediate Term Trend Model 

 

Blue Line Trading - Open TSLA Options

Blue Line Premium Trading Service: Jan 2025 $240C
Blue Line PRO Trading Service: Sep $200C & Dec $230C

 

What's Next? 

We will protect above gains with trailing stops on these calls, with a hard stop at $200 ($220 under certain conditions) basis TSLA share price. Zeroing in on the 2-hour chart, note where $220 and $200 come in from the prespective of channel support:

TSLA 120 Minute

Obliviously Long above $240, comfortably Long above $220, not Long at all (except for a token "just in case" position) below $200.

Exiting Big Winners 

Price weakness triggers an exit strategy and in fact is the only consideration in exiting the above calls. We can either use share price thresholds ($220 - $200) , or, a simple trailing stop on our profits, wherein we refuse to give up any more than half of best unrealized gains. In this case, using Best Returns Percentage and exiting if Current Returns drop to 50% from high tick. 

TSLA Long Term (Monthly)
 
Fresh Long Term Breakout Buy Signal: Confirmed above $220.  
 Fresh Long Term Trend Model (Monthly) Buy Signal: Confirmed so long as TSLA remains above $200 in July.
Long Term Five Wave Target:  $650-$950 into 2025-2026

 

Making Money With TSLA Calls

If the Long Term Model is right, TSLA will double-triple-quadruple over the course of 2025-2026. The option gains implied by such a huge price acceleration will be substantial. This service has already banked over 10,000% returns with TSLA calls (2020-2021)*. That was impulse wave #1, what's next is impulse wave #3. The heart of the third wave, a multi-year spike to well above the Nov 2021 high of $414.50, doesn't even kick off until TSLA breaks out above $300, but when it does, expect more aggressive options (See PRO picks above).  It's not a sure bet and a lot could go wrong, but we will be looking for it so long as the pattern unfolds as it currently suggests and the Trend Models, Long and Intermediate Term, confirm.   

*On Friday January 15, 2021 we closed out our greatest trade ever:
Dec 9, 2019: Buy TSLA Jan 2021 $84 Call @ $7.22*
Jan 15, 2021:  Call price @ expiration = $740.00*
Return: 10,150%
*prices adjusted for 5:1 split
 

For every $3,500 put into this trade, $355,200 was taken out.

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No one trades TSLA calls like we do, nor should they, because our tools are unique, proprietary and proven. This is our last few years at this game and TSLA will be my legacy. Half of my subscribers are charter subscribers from the inception of this service in January, 2010. What does that say? Come join us, as the best is yet to come

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 AMICUS CURIAE

Cathie Wood Sets 5-Year Expectation For Tesla Stock At $2,600 Per Share