This content was made available to all of our Premium and PRO Subscribers on Jan 1, 2025. After three-week delay, I'm posting to the free All Allan site. What's the big deal? Over the past four years my stocks of the year have been TSLA, now for the third time, and PLTR twice. This is the third time TSLA has held that honor and why not, the shares are up from a split-adjusted $24 in December, 2019 ("Game Changer") to its Dec 2024 high of $488 (+20X). If it does just half as well going forward, TSLA is destined for $4,000 in the next five years. Why buy anything else? Below are my thoughts on TSLA, given to my subscribers on Jan 1, 2025.
If you want to know how we are trading TSLA (and it derivatives) now, join up for 1/2 off your first month with Code: GOPRO@50% ($49.50) as I have laid out our initial positions in the current Weekend Update.
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2025 Stock of The Year
On Dec 31, 2023 this video went live on YouTube, announcing TSLA as my 2024 Stock of The Year. In the piece I alluded to a price target of $600-$800 in "years ahead." At the time, TSLA was trading at about $250. Let's see how it did in 2024.
TSLA 2024:
Open: Jan 2, 2024: $250.08
High: Dec 18, 2024: $488.54
Close: Dec 31 2024: $403.84*
2024 Open to Best = +95.35%
2024 Open to Close = +61.48%
*Santa Anti-Rally
As 2024 came to a close, TSLA fell about 17% from its peak levels at around December options expiration, creating an exceptional value, which could become even more so in the tax-selling expected come January.
Options Performance
The bigger story for us is how we traded TSLA calls during the 2024 run. Let's start with the TSLA trades on our PRO and Premium trading services:
PRO TRADING SERVICE*
*Performance Returns as of December 20th options expiration
PREMIUM TRADING SERVICE*
*Performance Returns as of December 20th options expiration.
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Impressive as these trades may seem, they barely touch on the real returns that were possible by simply pyramiding successive option trades, expiration to expiration. Here is an example from our PRO Service:
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This represents proceeds from just two TSLA option trades:
(1) Apr 26, 2024: Buy Sep 20th $200C @ $11.45 (+278%)*
(2) Aug 15, 2024: Roll above proceeds into Dec 20th $230C @ $15.35(+1467%)*
The proceeds of every $1,000 put into the Apr 26th initial TSLA calls and then rolled into the second tranche on Apr 15th = $59,191.*
*Performance Returns as of December 20th options expiration.
In all, between the two trading services there have been ten TSLA option trades in 2024, which includes trading calls on TSLL the 2X Bull TSLA ETF. So when I designate a stock as my, "Stock of the Year," I am betting on it rising not just in share price, but am also leveraging options to back up that selection. I first chose TSLA as my stock of the year for 2020, and in that instance recommended a "Buy and Hold" call, expiring in January 2021. That call went off the board 13 months later at +10,500%.
2025 Stock of The Year: TSLA
There will be many ways to leverage gains from my 2025 Stock of the Year, including simply buying shares and forgetting about any other stocks for about a year. Best bet: Buy shares and take a small position in any and all TSLA/TSLL calls recommended during 2025. For every call: 50% hard stop and once call is up 100%, use a 50% trailing stop to protect gains.
Here's the thing, it's not "Company" of the year, it's the "Stock of The Year," and the expectation is for TSLA to do at least a repeat of 2024. Knowing what it did in this past year should help anyone on the fence decide whether to participate in trading TSLA and its calls/derivatives in 2025. For every milestone achieved by this company in the past year, two years, three years and more, it should be gangbusters going forward and the run-up in the latter half of 2024 was but a prelude to what is ahead in 2025-2026. The stock, and its calls, will follow and that is with or without the participation of Nasdaq as a whole. Of course, a tailwind provided by the general market will help to accelerate share price past $500, $800, $1,300 and $2,100, but it isn't required.
Apple & Tesla
I've often compared TSLA's future price trajectory with that of AAPL and this year is no different. If you are hesitant to share this bullishness because of the great year TSLA is coming off of in 2024, let' see how well AAPL has followed up its successive series of great years.
AAPL Monthly
During the 60X run-up, AAPL fell 50% in 2008, and incurred multiple 30%+ losses thereafter, always landing on its feet and rewarding shareholders with subsequent new highs, even into the AI bull market of 2024.
TSLA's run began not so much with its IPO @ $1.27 in mid-2010, but with the introduction of the Cybertruck in late 2019, the equivalent of Apple's iPhone unveil in 2007. From a split adjusted $20 base in Dec, 2019 ("Game Changer"), to its high in late 2024 of $488.50, TSLA is up 30X, only halfway to AAPL's current 60X run, which projects TSLA to a high of over $1,200, just to match AAPL's ascent. Where have we seen that number before?
How about the 2025-2026 Fib Extension Level?
Currently in a corrective wave that could drop into the high $300's before resumption of a third wave higher at multiple degrees of trend.
There is just too much coincidence in the range of $800 to $1200, a double to triple of its current valuation in the next year or two, to pass up naming TSLA my stock of the year for 2025. Other names came close, but none made the same amount of sense...and opportunity...as TSLA. If I'm right, those numbers in the 2024 performance tables set out above may pale in comparison to what's coming in the year ahead.
TSLA Monthly
On this Monthly candle chart we can see the beginnings of a parabolic multi-year rally, of which the sweet spot, $600-$800-$1,200, is directly ahead.
Bottom Line
I spent about half of this special update on options performance in 2024. That is my bottom line, an assumption of a repeat, more or less, so then ask yourselves, if so, if TSLA is up another 60-95% this year how are you going to trade it? There are no guarantees in this game of trading stocks and options. Markets go up and down for extended periods. Next year can do one or the other or maybe even both. But the probability is that the market either goes up propelling TSLA higher along the trajectory of the Fibonacci Extension Tool on the chart above, or, the market tanks and we find just an exponential an opportunity to profit from stock movements in that direction, either via puts on index ETF's or puts on an assortment of individual stocks. If we have learned nothing else since the inception of this business in 2010, there is always an opportunity somewhere and we just have to know enough to recognize it and act accordingly, i.e., Find something that works, then trade it. For 2025 the opportunity is for a TSLA rally, accordingly:
When TSLA starts accelerating higher: Buy, Buy, Buy.
Happy New Year to All!
Chart courtesy of Trend Spider via X
My First Tesla
Soon after delivery in Sep, 2016, Obsidian Black 2016 Model S. I'm on my fourth Tesla now. In order, subsequent to the above 2016 Model S: 2018 Model 3 (Red), 2022 Model Y (White) and just recently, 2024 Model Y (Cherry Red). My Cybertruck order is still waiting for the price to come down to the originally promised, $49,900 (in line since December, 2019).